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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 65

New York Jets 7 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 5-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to NYG 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 21 for 8 yards (89-J.Ruckert).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.70 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 65, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 23, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model