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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 72

New York Giants 3 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 6-J.Gillan punts 56 yards to NYJ 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.81 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 30, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model