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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 13

New York Giants 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 9-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.51 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 13, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model