Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 63

New York Giants 10 – New York Jets 7

(5:04) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to NYJ 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.38 EP
63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 63, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model