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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 68

New York Jets 7 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 5-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to NYG 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 27 for 12 yards (21-A.Davis). FUMBLES (21-A.Davis), ball out of bounds at NYG 27.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.39 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 26, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP