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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 58

New York Giants 10 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(:42) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to NYJ 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.62 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 58, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model