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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 75

New York Jets 7 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 5-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to NYG 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.84 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP