Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 64

New York Giants 10 – New York Jets 7

(12:07) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to NYJ 22, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 28 for 6 yards (35-J.Corbin; 41-M.McFadden).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.19 EP
61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model