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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 57

New York Giants 10 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 6-J.Gillan punts 32 yards to NYJ 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-52-C.Coughlin.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.71 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 57, worth -2.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model