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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 59

New York Jets 7 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(1:33) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 26 for -15 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.79 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 59, worth -2.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model