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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 60

New York Giants 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to NYJ 20, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 24 for 4 yards (44-N.McCloud).

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.95 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 60, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 19, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model