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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 80

New York Giants 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(4:55) 6-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to NYJ 39, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.37 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 80, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 37, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model