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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 91

New York Giants 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to NYJ 40, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 82-X.Gipson to 50 for 10 yards (30-D.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.45 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 91, worth -5.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.54 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 48, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP