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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 45

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(5:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith to WAS 28 for 17 yards (29-K.Fuller) [93-J.Allen].

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.04 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model