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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2023-10-29 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

PHI
60.5%
WAS
39.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Sam Howell (WAS): -0.140 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23
–
WAS 19
Projected margin: PHI by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

PHI

Bradley Roby CB Out Shoulder
Jordan Davis DT Questionable Hamstring

WAS

Cody Barton LB Out Ankle
Saahdiq Charles G Out Calf
Phidarian Mathis DT Questionable Calf
Curtis Samuel WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 38
–
WAS 31

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 27 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:19 TD WAS (7:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – WAS 6
  • Q1 02:15 FG PHI (2:15) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 3 – WAS 7
  • Q2 12:44 TD WAS (12:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep middle to 1-J.Dotson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 3 – WAS 13
  • Q2 00:38 TD PHI (:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – WAS 14
  • Q2 00:06 FG WAS (:06) 6-J.Slye 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. PHI 10 – WAS 17
  • Q3 04:22 TD PHI (4:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-J.Allen]. Penalty on WAS-31-K.Curl, Illegal Contact, declined. PHI 16 – WAS 17
  • Q4 12:06 TD WAS (12:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 82-L.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 17 – WAS 23
  • Q4 08:53 TD PHI (8:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 23 – WAS 24
  • Q4 07:22 TD PHI (7:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-J.Jones for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 30 – WAS 24
  • Q4 01:53 TD PHI (1:53) 0-D.Swift left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 37 – WAS 24
  • Q4 01:08 TD WAS (1:08) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep left to 83-J.Crowder for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 38 – WAS 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 37%

    (9:46) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to PHI 8, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (8:19) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to WAS 27, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 38 for 11 yards (32-R.Blankenship; 81-G.Calcaterra).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 74%

    (2:15) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 70%

    (1:51) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (24-J.Bradberry).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:00) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to PHI 24, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-B.Covey to PHI 49 for 25 yards (20-J.Martin, 47-K.Hudson).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 44%

    (5:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith to WAS 28 for 17 yards (29-K.Fuller) [93-J.Allen].

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 57%

    (4:18) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short middle to 17-T.McLaurin.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 9 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:18) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:18) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell sacked at WAS 17 for -8 yards (7-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (7-H.Reddick) [7-H.Reddick], recovered by WAS-71-A.Wylie at WAS 16.