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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 48

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to PHI 8, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.40 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 48, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model