4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 40

Washington Commanders 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(4:18) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short middle to 17-T.McLaurin.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.33 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model