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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 85

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to WAS 27, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 38 for 11 yards (32-R.Blankenship; 81-G.Calcaterra).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.31 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 85, worth -5.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 43, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP