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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 40

Cleveland Browns 3 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 66-J.Hudson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt up the middle to ARI 38 for 2 yards (7-K.White; 3-B.Baker).

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.43 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.22 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model