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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2023-11-05 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread 13.0 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

ARI
18.8%
CLE
81.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CLE: Deshaun Watson (CLE) -0.127 vs Clayton Tune (ARI) -1.094 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Deshaun Watson in place of Phillip Walker; ARI starting Clayton Tune in place of Joshua Dobbs)
  • CLE defense: -0.160 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.128 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • ARI offense: -0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.103 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 17
–
CLE 25
Projected margin: CLE by 8 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

ARI

Trystan Colon C Out Calf
Emari Demercado RB Out Toe
Michael Wilson WR Questionable Shoulder
Kyler Murray QB Questionable Knee
Krys Barnes LB Questionable Hamstring
Greg Dortch WR Questionable Ankle
Kevin Strong DT Questionable Shoulder

CLE

David Bell WR Out Knee
Greg Newsome CB Out Groin
Alex Wright DE Out Knee
Dawand Jones T Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 0
–
CLE 27

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:18 FG CLE (14:18) 7-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Penalty on ARI-55-D.Stills, Defensive Offside, declined. ARI 0 – CLE 3
  • Q2 06:52 TD CLE (6:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 2-A.Cooper for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass deflected by 55 D.Stills ARI 0 – CLE 9
  • Q2 00:04 FG CLE (:04) 7-D.Hopkins 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. ARI 0 – CLE 13
  • Q3 08:09 TD CLE (8:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – CLE 19
  • Q4 07:52 TD CLE (7:52) 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI-98-R.Lopez was injured during the play. ARI 0 – CLE 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 34%

    (12:01) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:34) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to ARI 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 19 for 4 yards (20-P.Strong).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 12 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:12) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to CLE 39, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-J.Proche to CLE 44 for 5 yards (32-J.Blount).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 65%

    (3:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 84-J.Akins.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 14 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:12) 12-B.Gillikin punts 56 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-J.Proche to CLE 28 for 17 yards (26-B.Price; 51-K.Barnes).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (14:18) 7-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Penalty on ARI-55-D.Stills, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 55%

    (11:28) 66-J.Hudson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt up the middle to ARI 38 for 2 yards (7-K.White; 3-B.Baker).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:37) 12-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to CLE 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-J.Proche pushed ob at CLE 30 for 12 yards (47-E.Turner).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:39) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to ARI 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 24 for 14 yards (26-R.McLeod).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 73 yards to ARI 1, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-28-M.Ford.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:39) 12-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to CLE 44, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-J.Proche to ARI 40 for 16 yards (45-D.Gardeck). PENALTY on CLE-25-K.Hailassie, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 44.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 12 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:50) 12-B.Gillikin punts 57 yards to CLE 4, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-44-O.Pappoe.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 65 yards to ARI 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 83-G.Dortch to 50 for 23 yards (28-M.Ford).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 78%

    (12:13) 7-D.Hopkins 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 12 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 30%

    (10:07) (Shotgun) 15-C.Tune pass short right to 85-T.McBride to CLE 44 for 6 yards (22-G.Delpit).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to CLE 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-J.Proche to CLE 29 for 10 yards (52-V.Dimukeje).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:31) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 15 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:58) 12-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to CLE 32, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to ARI 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 83-G.Dortch ran ob at ARI 29 for 7 yards (88-H.Bryant).