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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 73

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 12-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to CLE 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-J.Proche pushed ob at CLE 30 for 12 yards (47-E.Turner).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 31, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model