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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 48

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.15 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.21 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model