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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 57

Cleveland Browns 13 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.04 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 57, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model