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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 30

Cleveland Browns 20 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 7-D.Hopkins 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.35 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model