Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Cleveland Browns 27

(7:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to CLE 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-J.Proche to CLE 29 for 10 yards (52-V.Dimukeje).

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 77, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model