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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 75

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Cleveland Browns 27

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 12-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to CLE 32, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 32, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model