Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 83

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

(7:12) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to CLE 39, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-J.Proche to CLE 44 for 5 yards (32-J.Blount).

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.00 EP
69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 83, worth -5.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model