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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Cleveland Browns
4th & 3 at the 36
Cleveland Browns 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0
What Actually Happened
(3:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 84-J.Akins.
The Three Options
GO
+1.02 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.84 EP
- 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.77 EP
KICK
+0.46 EP
- 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
- 35% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT
-0.11 EP
- Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
