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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 12

Cleveland Browns 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 7-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Penalty on ARI-55-D.Stills, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.21 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model