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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 57

Buffalo Bills 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(14:03) 8-S.Martin punts 38 yards to CIN 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 22 for 3 yards (25-T.Dodson).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.73 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 57, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model