Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: +0.162 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- CIN offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
- Josh Allen (BUF): +0.139 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- BUF defense: -0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- BUF on 3 more days rest than CIN
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
BUF
CIN
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:23 TD CIN (9:23) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 81-I.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – CIN 6
- Q1 06:08 TD BUF (6:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BUF-17-J.Allen, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. BUF 6 – CIN 7
- Q1 00:38 TD CIN (:38) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – CIN 13
- Q2 01:46 TD CIN (1:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 89-D.Sample for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – CIN 20
- Q3 10:25 FG BUF (10:25) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 10 – CIN 21
- Q4 08:11 FG CIN (8:11) 2-E.McPherson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. BUF 10 – CIN 24
- Q4 03:36 TD BUF (3:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – CIN 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q2 BUF 4th & 11 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(14:03) 8-S.Martin punts 38 yards to CIN 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 22 for 3 yards (25-T.Dodson).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 48Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 36%
(9:13) 10-B.Robbins punts 36 yards to BUF 12, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 20 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 51%
(5:44) 10-B.Robbins punts 33 yards to BUF 9, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 11 at the 92Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(3:39) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to CIN 47, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 16-T.Irwin to BUF 45 for 8 yards (44-T.Matakevich).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 67%
(2:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase to BUF 25 for 11 yards (21-J.Poyer).
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Q3 BUF 4th & 9 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%
(10:25) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 11 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(6:32) 10-B.Robbins punts 49 yards to BUF 9, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 5 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(5:13) 8-S.Martin punts 44 yards to CIN 42, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 5 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 64%
(2:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 89-D.Sample to BUF 35 for 2 yards (25-T.Dodson, 23-M.Hyde).
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Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%
(8:11) 2-E.McPherson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.