4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 92

Buffalo Bills 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to CIN 47, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 16-T.Irwin to BUF 45 for 8 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.47 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 92, worth -5.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 50, worth -2.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model