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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 36

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(2:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase to BUF 25 for 11 yards (21-J.Poyer).

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.72 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model