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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 58

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 10-B.Robbins punts 49 yards to BUF 9, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.96 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 58, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 18, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model