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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 2

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 2-E.McPherson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +3.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.24 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 2, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP