4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 37

Chicago Bears 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(12:56) (No Huddle) 17-T.Bagent scrambles right end ran ob at NO 32 for 5 yards (6-M.Maye).

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.30 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model