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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
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NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2023-11-05 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 9.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

CHI
29.9%
NO
70.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Derek Carr (NO) -0.040 vs Tyson Bagent (CHI) -0.246 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CHI 18
–
NO 25
Projected margin: NO by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

CHI

Jaquan Brisker S Out Concussion
Nate Davis G Out Ankle
Tremaine Edmunds LB Out Knee
Terell Smith CB Out Illness
Justin Fields QB Doubtful right Thumb
Braxton Jones T Questionable Neck

NO

Ty Summers LB Out Concussion
Kendre Miller RB Questionable Illness
Malcolm Roach DT Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 17
–
NO 24

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:28 TD CHI (11:28) 17-T.Bagent pass deep right to 85-C.Kmet for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – NO 0
  • Q1 00:49 TD NO (:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 12-C.Olave for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – NO 6
  • Q2 12:57 TD CHI (12:57) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short left to 85-C.Kmet for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – NO 7
  • Q2 06:08 TD NO (6:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 7-T.Hill for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 14 – NO 13
  • Q3 11:48 FG NO (11:48) 19-B.Grupe 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. CHI 14 – NO 17
  • Q3 03:30 FG CHI (3:30) 8-C.Santos 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 17 – NO 17
  • Q4 11:11 TD NO (11:11) (Shotgun) 99-K.Saunders reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 17 – NO 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 68%

    (12:56) (No Huddle) 17-T.Bagent scrambles right end ran ob at NO 32 for 5 yards (6-M.Maye).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:35) 39-L.Hedley punts 42 yards to CHI 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 13 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 91%

    (:32) 8-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (13:51) 39-L.Hedley punts 48 yards to CHI 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 8 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 68%

    (11:48) 19-B.Grupe 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (3:30) 8-C.Santos 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 63%

    (1:12) 39-L.Hedley punts 30 yards to CHI 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (14:11) 16-T.Gill punts 46 yards to NO 39, Center-48-P.Scales. 22-R.Shaheed to CHI 47 for 14 yards (23-R.Johnson; 12-V.Jones).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 94%

    (7:52) (No Huddle) 4-D.Carr up the middle to CHI 17 for no gain (53-T.Edwards; 97-A.Billings).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 9 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 48%

    (3:49) 39-L.Hedley punts 43 yards to CHI 2, impetus ends at CHI 1, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 92 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:57) 16-T.Gill punts 49 yards to NO 43, Center-48-P.Scales. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 49 for 6 yards (57-J.Sanborn). PENALTY on CHI-12-V.Jones, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NO 49.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 83%

    (2:30) 19-B.Grupe 47 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.