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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 22

Chicago Bears 14 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(:32) 8-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.85 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model