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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 13

Chicago Bears 14 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 8-C.Santos 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.60 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 13, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model