Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 85

Chicago Bears 17 – New Orleans Saints 17

(14:11) 16-T.Gill punts 46 yards to NO 39, Center-48-P.Scales. 22-R.Shaheed to CHI 47 for 14 yards (23-R.Johnson; 12-V.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.71 EP
50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 85, worth -4.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model