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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 17

New Orleans Saints 24 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(7:52) (No Huddle) 4-D.Carr up the middle to CHI 17 for no gain (53-T.Edwards; 97-A.Billings).

The Three Options

GO +2.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.79 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 17, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 27, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model