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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 45

New Orleans Saints 24 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 39-L.Hedley punts 43 yards to CHI 2, impetus ends at CHI 1, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.01 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP