Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 92

Chicago Bears 17 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 16-T.Gill punts 49 yards to NO 43, Center-48-P.Scales. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 49 for 6 yards (57-J.Sanborn). PENALTY on CHI-12-V.Jones, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NO 49.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.56 EP
49% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 92, worth -5.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model