Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 79

Carolina Panthers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

(12:25) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to IND 35, Center-44-J.Jansen. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 36 for 1 yard (57-C.Wooten).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 79, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model