IND @ CAR — 4th & Data

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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen

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Carolina Panthers

HC Frank Reich

Sunday 2023-11-05 · 16:05 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

IND

57.0%

CAR

43.0%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

CAR offense: -0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
Bryce Young (CAR): -0.195 EPA/dropback in prior starts
CAR defense: +0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
IND defense: +0.029 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 22

–

CAR 21

Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

IND

Julius Brents CB Out Quadricep

Braden Smith T Out Hip

Zaire Franklin LB Questionable Knee

Blake Freeland T Questionable Back

Rodney Thomas S Questionable Knee

Josh Downs WR Questionable Knee

CAR

Claudin Cherelus LB Out Knee

Justin Houston LB Out Hamstring

Laviska Shenault WR Out Ankle

Vonn Bell S Doubtful Quadricep

Donte Jackson CB Questionable Quadricep

D.J. Chark WR Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 27

–

CAR 13

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 13:55 FG IND (13:55) 7-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 3 – CAR 0
Q2 07:52 TD IND (7:52) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 28-J.Taylor for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 9 – CAR 0
Q2 03:39 FG CAR (3:39) 4-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. IND 10 – CAR 3
Q2 00:58 FG IND (:58) 7-M.Gay 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 13 – CAR 3
Q2 00:31 TD IND (:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 30-C.Hubbard INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at CAR 49. 23-K.Moore for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – CAR 3
Q3 04:41 TD CAR (4:41) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 17-D.Chark for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – CAR 9
Q4 13:52 TD IND (13:52) 9-B.Young pass short left intended for 6-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at IND 34. 23-K.Moore for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 26 – CAR 10
Q4 08:14 FG CAR (8:14) 4-E.Pineiro 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. IND 27 – CAR 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 66

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP

p(convert) 70%

(13:07) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to IND 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.
Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 75

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP

p(convert) 73%

(10:20) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to CAR 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 29 for 10 yards (81-M.Alie-Cox; 46-L.Rhodes). PENALTY on CAR-32-D.Bootle, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at CAR 19.
Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 89

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(8:14) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to CAR 48, Center-44-J.Jansen. 6-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CAR-57-C.Wooten at CAR 48.
Q1 CAR 4th & 20 at the 51

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 22% p(FG) 31%

(6:21) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to IND 8, Center-44-J.Jansen. 6-I.McKenzie pushed ob at IND 18 for 10 yards (84-S.Sullivan).
Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 7

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

(13:55) 7-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q2 CAR 4th & 14 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(12:25) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to IND 35, Center-44-J.Jansen. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 36 for 1 yard (57-C.Wooten).
Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 17

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

(3:39) 4-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 39

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 62%

(:58) 7-M.Gay 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q3 IND 4th & 16 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(12:40) 8-R.Sanchez punts 61 yards to CAR 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-I.Smith-Marsette ran ob at CAR 23 for 8 yards (83-K.Granson).
Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 21

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 65% p(FG) 91%

(6:06) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to IND 10 for 11 yards (25-R.Thomas).
Q3 IND 4th & 10 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 34%

(1:55) 8-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to CAR 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette. PENALTY on CAR-54-K.Grugier-Hill, Tripping, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 11. Penalty on CAR-29-D.Jamison, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 57

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(10:17) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles up the middle to IND 44 for 13 yards (45-E.Speed).
Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 31

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 79%

(8:14) 4-E.Pineiro 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(5:12) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to CAR 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 39 for 24 yards (35-C.Lammons, 50-S.Olubi). CAR-57-C.Wooten was injured during the play.
Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 55 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP

p(convert) 54%

(3:31) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to CAR 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.
Q4 CAR 4th & 18 at the 83 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.52 EP

p(convert) 27%

(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles up the middle to CAR 29 for 12 yards (94-Ty.Lewis).