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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 39

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(:58) 7-M.Gay 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.67 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model