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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 21

Carolina Panthers 3 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(6:06) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to IND 10 for 11 yards (25-R.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +2.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.68 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model