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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 50

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 8-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to CAR 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette. PENALTY on CAR-54-K.Grugier-Hill, Tripping, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 11. Penalty on CAR-29-D.Jamison, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.32 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model