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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 57

Carolina Panthers 10 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(10:17) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles up the middle to IND 44 for 13 yards (45-E.Speed).

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.52 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model