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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 31

Carolina Panthers 10 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 4-E.Pineiro 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.39 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model